| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17447 |
| DP17447 Evidence on Expectations of Household Finances | |
| Joao F. Cocco; Francisco Gomes; Paula Lopes-Cocco | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-07-07 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use panel data on expected and realized changes in household finances to study the process of expectation formation and expectation errors. Households extrapolate from improvements in financial situation, but a deterioration in their finances is associated with an increased dispersion of forecasts. This increased dispersion leads to higher probabilities of both negative and positive forecast errors. Individuals who expect negative earnings shocks to revert too quickly save less and have a higher likelihood of being financially worse off again in the future. A calibrated life-cycle model quantifies the consumption smoothing and welfare implications of belief distortions. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17447 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546536 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joao F. Cocco,Francisco Gomes,Paula Lopes-Cocco. DP17447 Evidence on Expectations of Household Finances. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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