全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP17449 Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP17449
	DP17449 Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
	Julian di Giovanni; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Alvaro Silva; Muhammed A. Yıldırım
发表日期	2022-07-08
出版年	2022
语种	英语
摘要	We study the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Euro Area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: 1) Compositional effects -- the switch from services to goods consumption -- are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation. 2) Inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks. 3) Foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an outsized role relative to domestic aggregate demand shocks in explaining Euro Area inflation over 2020-21. 4) International trade did not respond to changes in GDP as strongly as it did during the 2008-09 crisis despite strong demand for goods. These lower trade elasticities in part reflect supply chain bottlenecks. These four results imply that policies aimed at stimulating aggregate demand would not have produced as high an inflation as the one observed in the data without the negative sectoral supply shocks.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	inflation International trade Supply chains Spillovers
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp17449
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546539
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Julian di Giovanni,Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Alvaro Silva,et al. DP17449 Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation. 2022.