| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w0329
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 0329
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| Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth |
| Robert J. Barro; Zvi Hercowitz
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| 发表日期 | 1979-03-01
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| 出版年 | 1979
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | An important "empirical regularity" is the strong positive effect of money shocks on output and employment. One strand of business cycle theory relates this finding to temporary confusions between absolute and relative price changes. These models predict positive output effects of unperceived monetary movements, but the quantitative importance of unperceived shifts in nominal aggregates is subject to question. Another strand of theory, based on long-term nominal contracts and analogous price-setting institutions, generates output effects from unanticipated, but not necessarily contemporaneously unperceived, money shocks. However, the real effects of unpredicted, but contemporaneously understood, monetary changes are not obviously consistent with efficient institutional arrangements. The present paper provides some empirical evidence on the two types of theories by analyzing the output effects associated with revisions in the money stock data, where the revisions are interpreted as components of unperceived monetary movements. The revisions turn out to have no significant explanatory power for output. Previous findings that innovations from an estimated money growth equation have a significant output effect remain intact when the revisions are included as separate explanatory variables. Overall, the study provides a small amount of evidence against the special role of unperceived, as opposed to unanticipated, money movements as a determinant of business fluctuations. |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w0329
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/557503
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Robert J. Barro,Zvi Hercowitz. Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth. 1979.
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文件名：
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w0329.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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