| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w0807 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 0807 |
| A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model | |
| Robert J. Barro; David B. Gordon | |
| 发表日期 | 1981-11-01 |
| 出版年 | 1981 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Natural-rate models suggest that the systematic parts of monetary policy will not have important consequences for the business cycle. Nevertheless, we often observe high and variable rates of monetary growth, and a tendency for monetary authorities to pursue countercyclical policies. This behavior is shown to be consistent with a rational expectations equilibrium in a discretionary environment where the policymaker pursues a "reasonable" objective, but where precommitments on monetary growth are precluded. At each point in time, the policymaker optimizes subject to given inflationary expectations, which determine a Phillips Curve-type tradeoff between monetary growth/inflation and unemployment. Inflationary expectations are formed with the knowledge that policymakers will be in this situation. Accordingly, equilibrium excludes systematic deviations between actual and expected inflation, which means that the equilibrium unemployment rate ends up independent of "policy" in our model. However, the equilibrium rates of monetary growth/inflation depend on various parameters, including the slope of the Phillips Curve, the costs attached to unemployment versus inflation, and the level of the natural unemployment rate. The monetary authority determines an average inflation rate that is "excessive," and also tends to behave countercyclically. Outcomes are shown to improve if a costlessly operating rule is implemented in order to precomrnit future policy choices in the appropriate manner. The value of these precommitments -- that is, of long-term agreements between the government and the private sector -- underlies the argument for rules over discretion. Discretion is the sub-set of rules that provides no guarantees about the government's future behavior. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w0807 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/558017 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert J. Barro,David B. Gordon. A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model. 1981. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w0807.pdf（295KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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