| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w1121 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 1121 |
| Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility | |
| Jeffrey A. Frankel; Gikas A. Hardouvelis | |
| 发表日期 | 1983-05-01 |
| 出版年 | 1983 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The general price level does not provide a sensitive indicator of whether monetary policy is tight or loose, because mostprices are sticky. Interest rates are free to move, but they are an ambiguous indicator of monetary policy: one does not know whether changes in the interest rate are due to changes in the expected inflation rate or the real interest rate.Commodity prices provide the ideal sensitive indicator.This paper has two distinct aims. First, a theoretical model of "over-shooting" in commodity markets is presented. A known change in the money supply is shown to cause an instantaneous change in commodity prices that is greater than the proportionate change that describes long-run equilibrium.Second, we take the occasion of the Fed's Friday money supply announcements to test the theory. We find that an unexpectedly large money announcement causes significant negative reactions in prices of six commodities. This supports at once the sticky-price or overshooting view, and the notion that the market has confidence in the Fed's commitment to correct any deviations from its money growth targets. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w1121 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/558342 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jeffrey A. Frankel,Gikas A. Hardouvelis. Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility. 1983. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w1121.pdf（225KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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