全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Anticipated Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w1518
来源ID	Working Paper 1518
	Anticipated Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
	Daniel Valente Dantas; Rudiger Dornbusch
发表日期	1984-12-01
出版年	1984
语种	英语
摘要	This paper investigates the implications of government deficits in an overlapping generations consumption loan model with longterm assets. The only asset in the economy is a real consol issued by the government and serviced by lumpsum taxes on the young. We explore here the time path of short and longterm interest rates following the announcement of a future,transitory budget deficit under two alternative assumptions. In one case the deficit arises from transitory government spending, in the other case from a transfer.We show that a deficit policy ultimately raises longterm interest rates and lowers consol prices. The exact shape of the path of short-term rates depends on the source of the deficit and on the saving response to interestrates. In general, though, the term structure will be v-shaped. The interest of the model resides in the fact that the prices of longterm assets link the current generations to future disturbances. Because future disturbances affect future interest rates they affect the current value of debt outstanding and hence equilibrium short-term rates. The exact manner in which the disturbances are transmitted to prior periods depends on the extent to which consumers substitute easily across time or, on the contrary, have a strong preference for consumption smoothing.
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w1518
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/558755
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Daniel Valente Dantas,Rudiger Dornbusch. Anticipated Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Interest Rates. 1984.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w1518.pdf（320KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览