| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w1558 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 1558 |
| Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations | |
| Michael R. Darby; John C. Haltiwanger; Mark W. Plant | |
| 发表日期 | 1985-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 1985 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper develops a model of unemployment rate dynamics that provides an explanation of persistent cyclical unemployment that does not involve persistent expectational errors or other nonoptimizing behavior. Our results are based on the interaction of search dynamics and inventory adjustments. An important element in these dynamics appears to be heterogeneity in the labor force which can be characterized as consisting of a relatively small group of high turnover individuals who comprise the bulk of normal unemployment and a larger group of low turnover individuals who dominate movements in cyclical unemployment. Our empirical results provide support for this theory as we demonstrate that the appropriately measured probability of becoming employed during a recovery falls relative to normal because of the unusually high proportion of low turnover individuals who have lost "permanent" jobs. As aresult, recovery is much slower than is indicated by normal relationships although each individual is searching optimally. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Other |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w1558 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/558796 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael R. Darby,John C. Haltiwanger,Mark W. Plant. Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations. 1985. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w1558.pdf（663KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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