| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w2628 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 2628 |
| Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts | |
| Daniel R. Feenberg; William Gentry; David Gilroy; Harvey S. Rosen | |
| 发表日期 | 1988-06-01 |
| 出版年 | 1988 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In recent months, the governors of several states have suffered major political embarrassments because actual revenues fell, substantially short of the predictions in their respective budgets. Such episodes focus attention on the question of whether states do a "good" job of forecasting revenues. In modern economics, forecasts are evaluated on the basis of whether or not they are "rational" -- do the forecasts optimally incorporate all information that is available at the tune they are made? This paper develops a method for testing the rationality of state revenue forecasts, and applies it to the analysis of data from New Jersey, Massachusetts, arid Maryland. One of our main findings is that in all three states, the forecasts of own revenues are systematically biased downward. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w2628 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/559879 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Daniel R. Feenberg,William Gentry,David Gilroy,et al. Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts. 1988. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w2628.pdf（260KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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