G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w2628
来源IDWorking Paper 2628
Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts
Daniel R. Feenberg; William Gentry; David Gilroy; Harvey S. Rosen
发表日期1988-06-01
出版年1988
语种英语
摘要In recent months, the governors of several states have suffered major political embarrassments because actual revenues fell, substantially short of the predictions in their respective budgets. Such episodes focus attention on the question of whether states do a "good" job of forecasting revenues. In modern economics, forecasts are evaluated on the basis of whether or not they are "rational" -- do the forecasts optimally incorporate all information that is available at the tune they are made? This paper develops a method for testing the rationality of state revenue forecasts, and applies it to the analysis of data from New Jersey, Massachusetts, arid Maryland. One of our main findings is that in all three states, the forecasts of own revenues are systematically biased downward.
主题Macroeconomics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w2628
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/559879
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GB/T 7714
Daniel R. Feenberg,William Gentry,David Gilroy,et al. Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts. 1988.
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