| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/t0070 |
| 来源ID | Technical Working Paper 0070 |
| The Time-Varying-Parameter Model as an Alternative to ARCH for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of Lucas Hypothesis | |
| Charles R. Nelson; Chang-Jin Kim | |
| 发表日期 | 1988-09-01 |
| 出版年 | 1988 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas hypothesis (1973) in a times series context is the estimation of the variance conditional on past information. The ARCH model, proposed by Engle (1982), is one way of specifying the conditional variance. But the assumption underlying the ARCH specification is ad-hoc. The existence of ARCH can sometimes be interpreted as evidence of misspecification. Under the assumption that a monetary policy regime is continuously changing, a time-varying-parameter (TVP) model is proposed for the monetary growth function. Based on Kalman filtering estimation of recursive forcast errors and their conditional variances, the Lucas hypothesis is tested for the U.S. economy (1964.1 - 1985.4) using monetary growth as an aggregate demand variable. The Lucas hypothesis is rejected in favor of Friedman's (1977) hypothesis: the conditional variance of monetary growth affects real output directly, not through the coefficients on the forcast error term in the Lucas-type output equation. |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/t0070 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/559958 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Charles R. Nelson,Chang-Jin Kim. The Time-Varying-Parameter Model as an Alternative to ARCH for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of Lucas Hypothesis. 1988. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| t0070.pdf（2409KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
