| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w2715 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 2715 |
| The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets | |
| J. Bradford De Long; Andrei Shleifer; Lawrence H. Summers; Robert J. Waldmann | |
| 发表日期 | 1988-09-01 |
| 出版年 | 1988 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a stationary autoregressive process about a linear deterministic trend. The difference between the lack of persistence of output shocks either before WWII or over the entire century, on the one hand, and the strong signs of persistence of output shocks found by Campbell and Mankiw (1987) and by Nelson and Plosser (1982) for more recent periods is striking. It suggests to us a Keynesian interpretation of the large unit root in post-WWII U.S. output: perhaps post-WWII output shocks appear persistent because automatic stabilizers and other demand-management policies have substantially damped the transitory fluctuations that made up the pre-WWH Bums-Mitchell business cycle. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w2715 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/559977 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | J. Bradford De Long,Andrei Shleifer,Lawrence H. Summers,et al. The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets. 1988. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w2715.pdf（306KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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