| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w2797 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 2797 |
| The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries | |
| Alan J. Auerbach; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Robert Hagemann; Giuseppe Nicoletti | |
| 发表日期 | 1989-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 1989 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Demographic changes, such as those anticipated in most OECD countries, have many economics effects that impinge on a country's fiscal viability. Evaluation of the effects of associated changes in capital-labor ratios and the welfare and behavior of different generations requires the use of a dynamic general equilibrium model. The 75 generations - 250 year demographic simulation model, presented in Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987, Chapter 11), has been modified to incorporate bequest behavior, technological change, the possibility that the economy is open to international trade, and government consumption expenditures that depend on the age composition of the population. The model has been further adapted to study the effects of impending demographic changes in Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, Sweden and the United States. The simulation results indicate that these changes will have a major impact on rates of national saving, real wage rate and current accounts. One of this paper's fundamental lessons is that allowing for general equilibrium adjustments reduces the adverse welfare effects of increasing dependency ratios. Nevertheless, the welfare costs, and particularly their distributions across cohorts, pose serious challenges for policy makers in some cases. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w2797 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/560101 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan J. Auerbach,Laurence J. Kotlikoff,Robert Hagemann,et al. The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries. 1989. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w2797.pdf（349KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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