| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w3133 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 3133 |
| Forecasting Aggregate Period Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility | |
| James J. Heckman; James R. Walker | |
| 发表日期 | 1989-10-01 |
| 出版年 | 1989 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models that assign no role to wages. This article demonstrates, that when neoclassical models of fertility are estimated on microdata using methods that incorporate key demographic restrictions and when they are properly aggregated, they have considerable forecasting power. |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w3133 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/560413 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | James J. Heckman,James R. Walker. Forecasting Aggregate Period Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility. 1989. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w3133.pdf（537KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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