| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w3171 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 3171 |
| Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century | |
| Robert B. Barsky; J. Bradford De Long | |
| 发表日期 | 1989-11-01 |
| 出版年 | 1989 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The major bull and bear markets of this century have suggested to many that large decade-to-decade stock market swings reflect irrational "fads and fashions" that periodically sweep investors. We argue instead that investors have perceived significant shifts in the long-run mean rate of future dividend growth. and that stock prices depend sufficiently sensitively on expectations about the underlying future growth rate that these perceived shifts would plausibly generate large swings like those of the twentieth century. We go on to document that analysts who have often been viewed as "smart money" held assessments of fundamental values based on their perceptions of future economic growth and technological progress: the judgments of these analysts, like the assessments of fundamentals we generate from simple dividend growth forecasting rules, track the major decade-to-decade swings in the market rather closely. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w3171 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/560453 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert B. Barsky,J. Bradford De Long. Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century. 1989. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w3171.pdf（283KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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