| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w3611 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 3611 |
| A Model of the Political Economy of the United States | |
| Alberto Alesina; John Londregan; Howard Rosenthal | |
| 发表日期 | 1991-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 1991 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop and test a model of joint determination of the rate of economic growth and the results of presidential and Congressional elections in the United States. In our model, economic agents and voters have rational expectations. Economic policy varies as a function of control of the White House and the two-party shares in Congress. Politics affects growth through unanticipated policy shifts following the outcome of presidential elections. The economy influences elections as voters use past realizations of growth to make rational inferences about the "competency" level of the incumbent administration. Elections are also influenced by voters using their midterm Congressional votes to moderate the policies of the incumbent administration. The theoretical model is used to generate a recursive system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and Congressional elections. The theory implies several restrictions on the equations. Tests of the restrictions generally support the model; however, the results support the traditional view of naive retrospective voting as well as the "rational" retrospective voting posited in the model. |
| 主题 | Other ; Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w3611 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/560918 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alberto Alesina,John Londregan,Howard Rosenthal. A Model of the Political Economy of the United States. 1991. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w3611.pdf（398KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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