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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w3995 |
来源ID | Working Paper 3995 |
Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate? | |
Robert B. Barsky; J. Bradford De Long | |
发表日期 | 1992-02-01 |
出版年 | 1992 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were uncertain of the structure of the economy. and had to make forecasts of unknown and possibly-changing long-run dividend growth rates. The parameters of the stochastic process followed by dividends over the twentieth century cannot be precisely estimated even today at the century's end. Investors in the past had even less information about the dividend process. In such a context, it is difficult to see how investors can be faulted for implicitly forecasting future dividends by extrapolating past dividend growth. |
主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w3995 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/561337 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert B. Barsky,J. Bradford De Long. Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?. 1992. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w3995.pdf(911KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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