G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w3995
来源IDWorking Paper 3995
Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?
Robert B. Barsky; J. Bradford De Long
发表日期1992-02-01
出版年1992
语种英语
摘要Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were uncertain of the structure of the economy. and had to make forecasts of unknown and possibly-changing long-run dividend growth rates. The parameters of the stochastic process followed by dividends over the twentieth century cannot be precisely estimated even today at the century's end. Investors in the past had even less information about the dividend process. In such a context, it is difficult to see how investors can be faulted for implicitly forecasting future dividends by extrapolating past dividend growth.
主题Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w3995
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/561337
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GB/T 7714
Robert B. Barsky,J. Bradford De Long. Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?. 1992.
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