| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w4248 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 4248 |
| Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth | |
| Douglas Holtz-Eakin; Thomas M. Selden | |
| 发表日期 | 1992-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 1992 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Over the past decade, concern over potential global warming has focused attention on the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and there is an active debate concerning the desirability of reducing emissions. At the heart of this debate is the future path of both greenhouse gas emissions and economic development among the nations. We use global panel data to estimate the relationship between per capita income and carbon dioxide emissions, and then use the estimated trajectories to forecast global emissions of CO2. The analysis yields four major results. First, the evidence suggests a diminishing marginal propensity to emit (MPE) CO2 as economies develop; a result masked in analyses that rely on cross-section data alone. Second, despite the diminishing MPE, our forecasts indicate that global emissions of CO2 will continue to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. Third, continued growth stems from the fact that economic and population growth will be most rapid in the lower-income nations that have the highest MPE. For this reason, there will be an inevitable tension between policies to control greenhouse gas emissions and those toward the global distribution of income. Finally, our sensitivity analyses suggest that the pace of economic development does not dramatically alter the future annual or cumulative flow of CO2 emissions. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Public Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w4248 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/561607 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Douglas Holtz-Eakin,Thomas M. Selden. Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth. 1992. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w4248.pdf（333KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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