| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w4291 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 4291 |
| The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities | |
| Zhaohui Chen; Alberto Giovannini | |
| 发表日期 | 1993-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 1993 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The stability of the EMS depends crucially on realignment expectations of the market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the following empirical regularities for FF/DM and IL/DM exchange rates: (1) expected devaluations are positively related to the current exchange rate deviation from the central parity; (2) expected devaluations are negatively related to the length of time since last realignment in the short and medium run; (3) the Basle-Nyborg agreements seem to have a stabilizing effect for both currencies examined, albeit through different channels; (4) large revaluation expectations occur immediately after devaluations. (1) and (4) are not inconsistent with the hypothesis of over-speculation or market inefficiency. |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w4291 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/561653 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhaohui Chen,Alberto Giovannini. The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities. 1993. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w4291.pdf（287KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
