| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w4651 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 4651 |
| Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs | |
| Michael W. Klein; Nancy P. Marion | |
| 发表日期 | 1994-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 1994 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper is a theoretical and empirical investigation into the duration of exchange-rate pegs. The theoretical model considers a policy-maker who must trade off the economic costs of real exchange- rate misalignment against the political cost of realignment. The optimal time to spend on a peg is derived and factors that influence peg duration are identified. The predictions of the model are tested using logit analysis with a data set of exchange-rate pegs for sixteen Latin American countries and Jamaica during the 1957-1991 period. We find that the real exchange rate is a significant determinant of the likelihood of a devaluation. Structural variables, such as the openness of the economy and its geographical trade concentration, also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation. Finally, political events that change the political cost of realignment, such as regular and irregular executive transfers, are empirically important determinants of the likelihood of a devaluation. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w4651 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/562037 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael W. Klein,Nancy P. Marion. Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs. 1994. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w4651.pdf（464KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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