| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w4666 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 4666 |
| The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Non-Housing Wealth in the United States | |
| Hilary Williamson Hoynes; Daniel McFadden | |
| 发表日期 | 1994-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 1994 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Equity in housing is a major component of household wealth in the United States. Steady gains in housing prices over the last several decades have generated large potential gains in household wealth among homeowners. Mankiw and Weil (1989) and McFadden (1993b) have argued that the aging of the US population is likely to induce substantial declines in housing prices, resulting in capital losses for future elderly generations. However, if households can anticipate changes in housing prices, and if they adjust their non-housing savings accordingly, then welfare losses in retirement could be mitigated. This paper focuses on two questions: (1) Are housing prices forecastable from current information on demographics and housing prices?; and (2) How are household savings decisions affected by capital gains in housing? We use metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level data on housing prices and demographic trends during the 1980's and find mixed evidence on the forecastability of housing prices. Further, we use data on five-year savings rates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and find no evidence that households engage in changing their non-housing savings in response to expectations about capital gains in housing. Thus, the projected decline in housing prices could result in large welfare losses to current homeowners and large intergenerational equity differences. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w4666 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/562056 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hilary Williamson Hoynes,Daniel McFadden. The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Non-Housing Wealth in the United States. 1994. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w4666.pdf（741KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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