全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Great Wars, The Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About an Old Stylized Fact

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来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w4752
来源ID	Working Paper 4752
	The Great Wars, The Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About an Old Stylized Fact
	Dan Ben-David; David H. Papell
发表日期	1994-05-01
出版年	1994
语种	英语
摘要	For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important 'stylized facts' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature of growth theory. This paper uses an endogenous trend break model to investigate the unit root hypothesis for 16 countries, using annual GDP data spanning up to 130 years. Rejection of the unit root, which is facilitated by the inclusion of a trend break, introduces the possibility of examining the long run behavior of growth rates. We find that most countries exhibited fairly steady growth for a period lasting several decades. The termination of this period was usually characterized by a significant, and sudden, drop in GDP levels. But rather than simply returning to their previous steady state path, as predicted by the standard neoclassical growth model, most countries continued to grow at roughly double their prebreak rates for many decades, even after their original growth path had been surpassed.
主题	Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w4752
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/562149
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dan Ben-David,David H. Papell. The Great Wars, The Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About an Old Stylized Fact. 1994.

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文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w4752.pdf（395KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览