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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w4761
来源IDWorking Paper 4761
Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis
Eric M. Leeper; Christopher A. Sims
发表日期1994-06-01
出版年1994
语种英语
摘要This paper presents a macroeconomic model that is both a completely specified dynamic general equilibrium model and a probabilistic model for time series data. We view the model as a potential competitor to existing ISLM-based models that continue to be used for actual policy analysis. Our approach is also an alternative to recent efforts to calibrate real business cycle models. In contrast to these existing models, the one we present embodies all the following important characteristics: i) It generates a complete multivariate stochastic process model for the data it aims to explain, and the full specification is used in the maximum likelihood estimation of the model; ii) It integrates modeling of nominal variables -- money stock, price level, wage level, and nominal interest rate -- with modeling real variables; iii) It contains a Keynesian investment function, breaking the tight relationship of the return on investment with the capital-output ratio; iv) It treats both monetary and fiscal policy explicitly; v) It is based on dynamic optimizing behavior of the private agents in the model. Flexible-price and sticky-price versions of the model are estimated and their fits are evaluated relative to a naive model of no-change in the variables and to an unrestricted VAR. The paper displays the model's implications for the dynamic responses to structural shocks, including policy shocks, and evaluates the relative importance of various shocks for determining economic fluctuations.
主题Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w4761
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/562164
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GB/T 7714
Eric M. Leeper,Christopher A. Sims. Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis. 1994.
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