| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w5173 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 5173 |
| The Seasonality of Consumer Prices | |
| Michael F. Bryan; Stephen G. Cecchetti | |
| 发表日期 | 1995-07-01 |
| 出版年 | 1995 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper, we reevaluate the evidence of seasonality in prices which we find to be substantially greater than previous research has indicated. That is, seasonal price movements have become more prominent in the relatively stable inflation environment that has prevailed since 1982. One main conclusion is drawn from this analysis: The amount of seasonality in prices differs greatly by item, making it difficult to generalize about seasonal price movements. A casual reading fails to reveal an easily identifiable origin of the seasonal variation of prices. That is, seasonality in consumer prices is predominantly idiosyncratic in nature, a result that contrasts with studies demonstrating a common seasonal cycle in real economic variables. This finding has an important practical implication: Given the selective, disaggregated approach taken by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to adjust data seasonally, the existence of idiosyncratic seasonality increases the likelihood of allowing noise in the aggregate CPI at a seasonal frequency. This argues in favor of seasonally adjusting the index after aggregation. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w5173 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/562616 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael F. Bryan,Stephen G. Cecchetti. The Seasonality of Consumer Prices. 1995. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w5173.pdf（329KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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