| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w5481 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 5481 |
| Deterministic vs. Stochastic Trend in U.S. GNP, Yet Again | |
| Francis X. Diebold; Abdelhak S. Senhadji | |
| 发表日期 | 1996-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 1996 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A sleepy consensus has emerged that U.S. GNP data are uninformative as to whether trend is better described as deterministic or stochastic. Although the distinction is not critical in some contexts, it is important for point forecasting, because the two models imply very different long-run dynamics and hence different long-run forecasts. We argue that, even for the famously recalcitrant GNP series, unit root tests over long spans can be informative. Our results make clear that uncritical repetition of the `we don't know, and we don't care' mantra is just as scientifically irresponsible as blind adoption of the view that `all macroeconomic series are difference-stationary,' or the view that `all macroeconomic series are trend-stationary.' There is simply no substitute for serious, case- by-case analysis. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w5481 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/562944 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francis X. Diebold,Abdelhak S. Senhadji. Deterministic vs. Stochastic Trend in U.S. GNP, Yet Again. 1996. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w5481.pdf（342KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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