| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w5590 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 5590 |
| Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation | |
| Matthew D. Shapiro; David W. Wilcox | |
| 发表日期 | 1996-05-01 |
| 出版年 | 1996 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A number of analysts have claimed recently that the consumer price index overstates the annual increase in the cost of living. This paper develops a framework for studying measurement problems in the consumer price index and systematically analyzes the available evidence concerning the magnitude of these problems. It concludes that the CPI overstates increases in the cost of living. The evidence suggests that the bias is centered on 1.0 percentage point per year. The extent of this bias is not known exactly. To take into account this uncertainty, the estimated bias is presented in terms of a probability distribution rather than a point estimate or range. We estimate that there is a 10 percent chance that the bias is less than 0.6 percentage point and a 10 percent chance that it is greater than 1.5 percentage points per year. CPI procedures overstate the rate of inflation for medical procedures that are subject to technological improvement. To illustrate this point and to show how better to measure medical care prices, the paper presents a prototypical price index for cataract surgery. This price index grows much more slowly than a price index for cataract surgery constructed using the methodology of the CPI. The paper discusses implications of CPI mismeasurement for monetary and fiscal policy as well as for other official statistics. It also offers some suggestions for improving the CPI. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w5590 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/563064 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Matthew D. Shapiro,David W. Wilcox. Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation. 1996. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w5590.pdf（3393KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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