| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w5675
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 5675
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| Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity? |
| Robert E. Cumby
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| 发表日期 | 1996-07-01
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| 出版年 | 1996
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | A decade ago the Economist began an annual survey of Big Mac prices as a guide to whether currencies are trading at the right exchange rates. This paper asks how well the hamburger standard has performed. Although average deviations from absolute Big Mac parity are large for several currencies, once estimates of these average deviations are removed from the data, the evidence suggests that convergence to relative Big Mac parity is quite rapid. The half-life of deviations from Big Mac parity appear to be about 1 year, which is considerably shorter than estimates of the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (4-5 years) that are reported in the literature. In addition, deviations from relative Big Mac parity appear to provide useful information for forecasting exchange rates. After accounting for currency-specific constants, a 10 percent undervaluation according to the hamburger standard in one year is associated with a 3.5 percent appreciation over the following year. Finally, deviations from relative Big Mac parity seem to be helpful in forecasting relative local currency prices. When the U.S. dollar price of Big Macs is high in a country, the relative local currency price of Big Macs in that country is likely to fall during the following year. |
| 主题 | International Economics
; International Finance
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w5675
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/563155
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Robert E. Cumby. Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?. 1996.
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文件名：
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w5675.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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