G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w5789
来源IDWorking Paper 5789
Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
Robert P. Flood; Nancy P. Marion
发表日期1996-10-01
出版年1996
语种英语
摘要We develop a modified understand better the 1994 Mexican peso crisis as well as aspects of the European currency crises in 1992-93. We introduce the assumption that the speculative attack is sterilized by the domestic monetary authority, we incorporate a stochastic risk premium, and we allow for some price stickiness. The modified model shows that macroeconomic policies inconsistent in the longer run with a fixed exchange rate can push the economy inevitably towards a currency crisis, but it also demonstrates how a government currently following consistent macroeconomic policies can suddenly face a speculative attack triggered by a large shift in speculative opinion. However, the ability of a sudden shift in speculative opinion to trigger an attack is bounded by the position of fundamentals. Thus an attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable.
主题Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Finance
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w5789
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/563278
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Robert P. Flood,Nancy P. Marion. Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies. 1996.
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