| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w5789 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 5789 |
| Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies | |
| Robert P. Flood; Nancy P. Marion | |
| 发表日期 | 1996-10-01 |
| 出版年 | 1996 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a modified understand better the 1994 Mexican peso crisis as well as aspects of the European currency crises in 1992-93. We introduce the assumption that the speculative attack is sterilized by the domestic monetary authority, we incorporate a stochastic risk premium, and we allow for some price stickiness. The modified model shows that macroeconomic policies inconsistent in the longer run with a fixed exchange rate can push the economy inevitably towards a currency crisis, but it also demonstrates how a government currently following consistent macroeconomic policies can suddenly face a speculative attack triggered by a large shift in speculative opinion. However, the ability of a sudden shift in speculative opinion to trigger an attack is bounded by the position of fundamentals. Thus an attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w5789 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/563278 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert P. Flood,Nancy P. Marion. Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies. 1996. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w5789.pdf（1434KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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