| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w6228 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 6228 |
| Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters | |
| Francis X. Diebold; Anthony S. Tay; Kenneth F. Wallis | |
| 发表日期 | 1997-10-01 |
| 出版年 | 1997 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Since 1968, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has asked respondents to provide a" complete probability distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of" those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1997). The analysis" reveals several interesting features of the density forecasts in relation to realized inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflation" shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of" either sign is overestimated. Inflation surprises are serially correlated eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced uncertainty. The" results suggest several promising directions for future research. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Econometrics ; Estimation Methods |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w6228 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/563739 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francis X. Diebold,Anthony S. Tay,Kenneth F. Wallis. Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters. 1997. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w6228.pdf（1116KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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