| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w6543 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 6543 |
| Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy | |
| Andrew G. Haldane; Nicoletta Batini | |
| 发表日期 | 1998-05-01 |
| 出版年 | 1998 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper evaluates a class of simple monetary policy rules which feed back from explicit forecasts of future inflation - inflation forecast-based (IFB) rules. These rules aim to mimic current monetary policy practices among the inflation-targeting countries, where policy decisions are based on inflation forecasts. The rules themselves are evaluated using simulations from a small, rational expectations, open-economy macro-model. IFB rules are found to perform well in comparison with other simple rules, such as the Taylor rule. The reasons for this are: first, because they embody the lags in monetary transmission, aligning explicitly the control and the feedback variables of the policymaker; second, because IFB rules are capable of smoothing output by as much as is possible with rules which target output directly - for example, through variations in the forecast horizon; and third, because IFB rules implicitly condition on all state variables, and thus are information-efficient. For these reasons, inflation-targeting rules with an explicitly forward-looking dimension are found to take us within reach of the fully-optimal rule. |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w6543 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/564058 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrew G. Haldane,Nicoletta Batini. Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy. 1998. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w6543.pdf（1583KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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