| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w6861 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 6861 |
| Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis | |
| Kala Krishna; Ataman Ozyildirim; Norman R. Swanson | |
| 发表日期 | 1998-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 1998 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper looks at the patterns of causation between income, export, import, and investment growth for 25 developing countries. Our approach differs from previous efforts in a number of ways. First, we examine each country individually in order to allow for complete heterogeneity and properly account for the stochastic trending properties of the data. Second, we apply novel model selection techniques which are based on in-sample goodness-of-fit criteria and ex-ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best model for each country. Finally, we propose a rather novel device based on simple contingency tables which allows us to assess whether our models are capable of accurately predicting turning points in GDP growth. We find that countries with high trade exposure fare poorly in this dimension and posit that the GDP growth in such countries is best modeled using an index of global business cycle conditions, in addition to the above variables. Overall, we find that in around two thirds of the countries examined, growth is best explained by exports and/or imports. Further, and in contrast to previous findings of bi-directional causality, around 70% of the countries exhibit uni-directional causality. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w6861 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/564371 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kala Krishna,Ataman Ozyildirim,Norman R. Swanson. Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis. 1998. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w6861.pdf（1481KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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