| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w6866 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 6866 |
| Demographics and Medical Care Spending: Standard and Non-Standard Effects | |
| David M. Cutler; Louise Sheiner | |
| 发表日期 | 1998-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 1998 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper, we examine the effects of likely demographic changes on medical spending for the elderly. Standard forecasts highlight the potential for greater life expectancy to increase costs: medical costs generally increase with age, and greater life expectancy means that more of the elderly will be in the older age groups. Two factors work in the other direction, however. First, increases in life expectancy mean that a smaller share of the elderly will be in the last year of life, when medical costs generally are very high. Furthermore, more of the elderly will be dying at older ages, and end-of-life costs typically decline with age at death. Second, disability rates among the surviving population have been declining in recent years by 0.5 to 1.5 percent annually. Reductions in disability, if sustained, will also reduce medical spending. Thus, changes in disability and mortality should, on net, reduce average medical spending on the elderly. However, these effects are not as large as the projected increase in medical spending stemming from increases in overall medical costs. Technological change in medicine at anywhere near its historic rate would still result in a substantial public sector burden for medical costs. |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w6866 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/564376 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David M. Cutler,Louise Sheiner. Demographics and Medical Care Spending: Standard and Non-Standard Effects. 1998. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w6866.pdf（1492KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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