| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w7010
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 7010
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| Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age? |
| Victor Zarnowitz
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| 发表日期 | 1999-03-01
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| 出版年 | 1999
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The disputes over the prospects for the current U.S. expansion reopen the issue of the causes of business cycles. A recurrent concern about the present is that expectations of business profits and market returns may be outrunning the economy's potential to deliver. The theory presented in this paper ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation and interest rates. I discuss new estimates of profit and investment functions with important roles for growth of demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume and credit difficulties. The relationships among these endogenous variables are viewed as constituting an enduring core of business cycles, the exogenous shocks and policy effects as more transitory and peripheral. The U.S. upswing of the past three years provides a vivid example of how profits, investment, and an exuberant stock market can reinforce each other. Long business expansions benefit society in several ways but they generate imbalances and are difficult to sustain. Recent events in Asia demonstrate how investment-driven booms can give way to a protracted stagnation with tendencies toward deflation and underconsumption or to severe depressions. After a deterioration in the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. business cycles moderated again, as in the first two post-WWII decades. But globally recessions became more frequent and more severe in the second half of the postwar era. The arguments in favor a new Golden Age are generally not persuasive. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w7010
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/564532
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Victor Zarnowitz. Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?. 1999.
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文件名：
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w7010.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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