G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w7010
来源IDWorking Paper 7010
Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?
Victor Zarnowitz
发表日期1999-03-01
出版年1999
语种英语
摘要The disputes over the prospects for the current U.S. expansion reopen the issue of the causes of business cycles. A recurrent concern about the present is that expectations of business profits and market returns may be outrunning the economy's potential to deliver. The theory presented in this paper ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation and interest rates. I discuss new estimates of profit and investment functions with important roles for growth of demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume and credit difficulties. The relationships among these endogenous variables are viewed as constituting an enduring core of business cycles, the exogenous shocks and policy effects as more transitory and peripheral. The U.S. upswing of the past three years provides a vivid example of how profits, investment, and an exuberant stock market can reinforce each other. Long business expansions benefit society in several ways but they generate imbalances and are difficult to sustain. Recent events in Asia demonstrate how investment-driven booms can give way to a protracted stagnation with tendencies toward deflation and underconsumption or to severe depressions. After a deterioration in the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. business cycles moderated again, as in the first two post-WWII decades. But globally recessions became more frequent and more severe in the second half of the postwar era. The arguments in favor a new Golden Age are generally not persuasive.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w7010
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/564532
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Victor Zarnowitz. Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?. 1999.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w7010.pdf(116KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Victor Zarnowitz]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Victor Zarnowitz]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Victor Zarnowitz]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w7010.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。