Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w7721 |
来源ID | Working Paper 7721 |
The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion of the 1990s | |
Victor Zarnowitz | |
发表日期 | 2000-05-01 |
出版年 | 2000 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Some analysts see the expansion of the 1990s as uniquely long and strong. Moreover, according to one popular view, the noninflationary boom can continue indefinitely. To shed some light on this debate, this paper compares the 1990s systematically with two previous long economic expansions, using 31 variables on real activity, inflation, productivity, wages, profits, interest rates, stock prices, foreign trade, and fiscal and monetary policies. Contrary to the popular conception, the cumulative gains in activity were greater in the 1960s and even in the 1980s than in the 1990s. This is because the recovery of 1991-1992 was unusually sluggish, and despite the fact that lately U.S. growth was indeed remarkably high and stable. Inflation was decreasing or stable, a fact which is new for the post-World War II period (but not for the longer historical perspective). Disinflation or deflation abroad contributed much to this outcome, as did the new technologies. The declines of interest rates reflected mostly reductions in inflation and the national debt. Profit margins increased strongly. Still, there are potential imbalances from overborrowing, overspending and undersaving, and rising current account deficits. Overvaluation in some parts of the stock market is probable and worrisome, but hard to evaluate. |
主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w7721 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/565282 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Victor Zarnowitz. The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion of the 1990s. 2000. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w7721.pdf(578KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Victor Zarnowitz]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Victor Zarnowitz]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Victor Zarnowitz]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。