全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Technology, Unemployment, and Inflation

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w7817
来源ID	Working Paper 7817
	Technology, Unemployment, and Inflation
	Jacob Mincer; Stephan Danninger
发表日期	2000-07-01
出版年	2000
语种	英语
摘要	We explore the response of employment (unemployment) skill differentials to skill-biased shifts in demand touched off by the new and spreading technologies. We find that skill differentials in unemployment follow at least in part the same pattern as skill differentials in wages: They widen initially but decline after a roughly 5-year lag, allowing time for training and learning to handle the new technologies. In the micro (PSID) cross-section the differentials show up as sectoral differences defined by technology. In the aggregate time series relative unemployment is defined by educational unemployment differentials. We find that the pace and turnaround in the unemployment gap' is twice as fast as in the wage gap'. Apparently, the hiring and training response is quicker than the wage response. We also observe in time series that the pace of technology has unclear effects on aggregate unemployment in the short run, but appears to reduce it in the longer run. In addition to technology, maturing of the workforce, and growth of international trade reduce unemployment in the longer run. The same variables also significantly reduce inflation in both the short and long run. Given the actual changes in these factors in the early 90's we are able to predict a little over a half of the decline in unemployment and about 70% of the reduction in inflation in the latter half of the last decade.
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w7817
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/565389
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jacob Mincer,Stephan Danninger. Technology, Unemployment, and Inflation. 2000.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w7817.pdf（306KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览