| 来源类型 | Working Paper
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w8192
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 8192
|
| The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions |
| Edward E. Leamer
|
| 发表日期 | 2001-03-01
|
| 出版年 | 2001
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Graphs that allow side by side comparisons of the six longer US expansions since 1950 suggest that these expansions have four distinct phases: (1) a high growth recovery during which the rate of unemployment declines to its pre-recession level, (2) a modest growth plateau during which the rate of unemployment is constant, (3) a growth spurt that drives unemployment down further and (4) a second plateau with modest growth and constant rate of unemployment. There have been only three expansions that have experienced the spurt and none has experienced a second spurt. These phases involve substantially different rates of GDP growth, but within each of these four phases GDP growth is largely unpredictable. Forecast accuracy thus comes mostly from understanding the transitions. This requires both data and economics. The economics takes the form of a predator/prey model of the cycle, where the prey are investment opportunities and the predators are entrepreneurs. A probit model of the transition into recession raises concerns about how much longer the aged Bush/Clinton expansion can last. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w8192
|
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
|
| 引用统计 |
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/565788
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Edward E. Leamer. The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions. 2001.
|
|
文件名：
|
w8192.pdf
|
|
格式：
|
Adobe PDF
|
此文件暂不支持浏览
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
