| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w8282 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 8282 |
| The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates | |
| Louis K.C. Chan; Jason Karceski; Josef Lakonishok | |
| 发表日期 | 2001-05-01 |
| 出版年 | 2001 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Expected long-term earnings growth rates are crucial inputs to valuation models and for cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long-term growth rates across a broad cross-section of stocks using several operating performance indicators. We test whether growth persists, and whether it is forecastable. Cases of very high growth have occurred, but are relatively rare. There is scant persistence in growth beyond chance, and limited ability to identify firms with high future long-term growth. IBES forecasts are too optimistic, and have low predictive power for long-term growth. Regressions using a variety of predictors confirm the low predictability in growth. Valuations that assume persistently high growth over prolonged periods rest on shaky foundations. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w8282 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/565880 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Louis K.C. Chan,Jason Karceski,Josef Lakonishok. The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates. 2001. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w8282.pdf（194KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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