| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w8362 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 8362 |
| Rational Speculation and Exchange Rates | |
| Margarida Duarte; Alan C. Stockman | |
| 发表日期 | 2001-07-01 |
| 出版年 | 2001 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper we develop a general equilibrium model of exchange rates where expectations of future variables directly affect the current exchange rate through an 'asset-market' term. This term, which results from the assumptions of incomplete asset markets and segmented product markets, does not appear in most models of exchange rates and it allows for changes in expectations about variables at t+1 to affect the date-t exchange rates without requiring changes in other contemporaneous variables. Therefore, the model has the potential to deliver changes in exchange rates, resulting from rational speculation, without much change in consumption allocations or goods' prices, making it consistent with the common view that exchange rates behave like asset prices. To implement the idea that exchange rates respond to expectations about future economic conditions, we introduce a regime variable governing the covariance structure of shocks to productivity and money growth in each country. Changes in the information variable are intended to generate changes in home and foreign agents' perceptions of the relative risks of holding the nominal asset. The model is roughly consistent with the common view that exchange rates behave like asset prices. However, it does not generate a sufficient degree of rational speculation to explain either observed variation of risk premia in foreign exchange markets or observed variation in exchange rates. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w8362 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/565964 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Margarida Duarte,Alan C. Stockman. Rational Speculation and Exchange Rates. 2001. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w8362.pdf（427KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
