全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w8389
来源ID	Working Paper 8389
	Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative
	Robert B. Barsky; Lutz Kilian
发表日期	2001-07-01
出版年	2001
语种	英语
摘要	This paper argues that major oil price increases were not nearly as essential a part of the causal mechanism that generated the stagflation of the 1970s as is often thought. There is neither a theoretical presumption that oil supply shocks are stagflationary nor robust empirical evidence for this view. In contrast, we show that monetary expansions and contractions can generate stagflation of realistic magnitude even in the absence of supply shocks. Furthermore, monetary fluctuations help to explain the historical movements of the prices of oil and other commodities, including the surge in the prices of industrial commodities that preceded the 1973/74 oil price increase. Thus, they can account for the striking coincidence of major oil price increases and worsening stagflation.
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w8389
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/565991
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robert B. Barsky,Lutz Kilian. Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative. 2001.