| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w8430 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 8430 |
| The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely | |
| Robert H. McGuckin; Ataman Ozyildirim; Victor Zarnowitz | |
| 发表日期 | 2001-08-01 |
| 出版年 | 2001 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A major shortcoming of the U.S. leading index is that it does not use the most recent information for stock prices and yield spreads. The index methodology ignores these data in favor of a time-consistent set of components (i.e., all of the components must refer to the previous month). An alternative is to bring the series with publication lags up-to-date with forecasts and create an index with a complete set of most recent components. This study uses tests of ex-ante predictive ability of the U.S. leading index to evaluate the gains to this new 'hot box' procedure of statistical imputation. We find that, across a variety of simple forecasting models, the new approach offers substantial improvements. |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w8430 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/566033 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert H. McGuckin,Ataman Ozyildirim,Victor Zarnowitz. The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely. 2001. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w8430.pdf（254KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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