| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w8736 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 8736 |
| Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles | |
| Victor Zarnowitz; Ataman Ozyildirim | |
| 发表日期 | 2002-01-24 |
| 出版年 | 2002 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms deserve to be analyzed along with classical recessions and expansions, but the needed time series decomposition presents difficult problems, mainly because trends and cycles influence each other. We compare cyclical movements in levels, deviations from trend, and smoothed growth rates of the principal measures of aggregate economic activity - the quarterly real GDP and the monthly U.S. Coincident Index - using the phase average trend (PAT). Then we compare alternative trend estimates, deterministic and stochastic, linear and nonlinear, and the corresponding estimates of 'cyclical components,' that is, series of deviations from these trends. We discuss how these measures differ in terms of the patterns, timing, amplitudes, and smoothness of the resulting estimates of U.S. growth cycles in the post-World War II period. The results of PAT show great similarity to the results obtained with the H-P and band-pass filtering methods, but in matters of detail PAT is often superior. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w8736 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/566343 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Victor Zarnowitz,Ataman Ozyildirim. Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles. 2002. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w8736.pdf（381KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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