| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w9315 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 9315 |
| Credibility and Policy Convergence: Evidence from U.S. House Roll Call Voting Records | |
| David S. Lee; Enrico Moretti; Matthew J. Butler | |
| 发表日期 | 2002-11-04 |
| 出版年 | 2002 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Traditional models of politician behavior predict complete or partial policy convergence, whereby electoral competition compels partisan politicians to choose positions more moderate than their most-preferred policies. Alternatively, if politicians cannot overcome the inability to make binding pre-commitments to policies, the expected result is complete policy divergence. By exploiting a regression discontinuity (RD) design inherent in the Congressional electoral system, this paper empirically tests the strong predictions of the complete divergence hypothesis against the alternative of partial convergence within the context of Representatives' roll call voting behavior in the U.S. House (1946-1994). The RD design implies that which party wins a district seat is quasi-randomly assigned among elections that turn out to be 'close'. We use this variation to examine if Representatives' roll call voting patterns do not respond to large exogenous changes in the probability of winning the election, the strong prediction of complete policy divergence. The evidence is more consistent with full divergence and less consistent with partial convergence, suggestive that the difficulty of establishing credible commitments to policies is an important real-world phenomenon. |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; Other ; Law and Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w9315 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/566931 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David S. Lee,Enrico Moretti,Matthew J. Butler. Credibility and Policy Convergence: Evidence from U.S. House Roll Call Voting Records. 2002. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w9315.pdf（1867KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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