| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w9336
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 9336
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| Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis |
| Ian Ayres; John J. Donohue III
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| 发表日期 | 2002-11-18
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| 出版年 | 2002
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | John Lott and David Mustard have used regression analysis to argue forcefully that 'shall-issue' laws (which give citizens an unimpeded right to secure permits for concealed weapons) reduce violent crime. While certain facially plausible statistical models appear to generate this conclusion, more refined analyses of more recent state and county data undermine the more guns, less crime hypothesis. The most robust finding on the state data is that certain property crimes rise with passage of shall- issue laws, although the absence of any clear theory as to why this would be the case tends to undercut any strong conclusions. Estimating more statistically preferred disaggregated models on more complete county data, we show that in most states shall- issue laws have been associated with more crime and that the apparent stimulus to crime tends to be especially strong for those states that adopted in the last decade. While there are substantial concerns about model reliability and robustness, we present estimates based on disaggregated county data models that on net the passage of the law in 24 jurisdictions has increased the annual cost of crime slightly -- somewhere on the order of half a billion dollars. We also provide an illustration of how our jurisdiction-specific regression model has the capacity to generate more nuanced assessments concerning which states might profit from or be harmed by a particular legal intervention. |
| 主题 | Public Economics
; Other
; Law and Economics
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w9336
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/566952
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Ian Ayres,John J. Donohue III. Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis. 2002.
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文件名：
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w9336.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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