| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w9367 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 9367 |
| The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population | |
| Robert Dekle | |
| 发表日期 | 2002-12-09 |
| 出版年 | 2002 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation has attracted international attention. I assess what current Japanese government policies mean for the future of public debt and the economy in general, given the inevitable aging of the population. I review how Japan got into this current fiscal mess, and then perform an analysis of some debt dynamics. With unchanged fiscal policies, Japan's public debt will rise to between 260% and 380% of GDP in 2030, and to between 700% and 1300% in 2040 -- clearly unsustainable levels. For the debt to be sustainable, significant increases in taxes, or cuts in government spending are necessary. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w9367 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/566986 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert Dekle. The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population. 2002. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w9367.pdf（232KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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