全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w9828
来源ID	Working Paper 9828
	Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons
	Guillermo A. Calvo; Alejandro Izquierdo; Ernesto Talvi
发表日期	2003-07-14
出版年	2003
语种	英语
摘要	We offer an alternative explanation for the fall of Argentina's Convertibility Program based on the country's vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that breaks havoc in countries that are heavily dollarized in their liabilities, turning otherwise sustainable fiscal and corporate sector positions into unsustainable ones. In particular, we stress that the required change in relative prices is larger the more closed an economy is in terms of its supply of tradable goods. By contrasting Argentina's performance relative to other Latin American countries that were also subject to the Sudden Stop triggered by the Russian crisis of 1998, we identify key vulnerability indicators that separated Argentina from its piers. We also provide an explanation for the political maelstrom that ensued after the Sudden Stop, based on a War of Attrition argument related to the wealth redistribution conflict triggered by the Sudden Stop and fiscal collapse. This framework also provides elements to rationalize the banking crisis that accompanied the fall of Convertibility.
主题	International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w9828
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/567452
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guillermo A. Calvo,Alejandro Izquierdo,Ernesto Talvi. Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons. 2003.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w9828.pdf（279KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览