G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w10384
来源IDWorking Paper 10384
Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry
Valerie A. Ramey; Daniel J. Vine
发表日期2004-03-29
出版年2004
语种英语
摘要Recent papers by Kim and Nelson (1999) and McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000) uncover a dramatic decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth beginning in 1984. Determining whether the source is good luck, good policy or better inventory management has since developed into an active area of research. This paper seeks to shed light on the source of the decline in volatility by studying the behavior of the U.S. automobile industry, where the changes in volatility have mirrored those of the aggregate data. We find that changes in the relative volatility of sales and output, which have been interpreted by some as evidence of improved inventory management, are in fact the result of changes in the process driving automobile sales. We first show that the autocorrelation of sales dropped during the 1980s, and that the behavior of interest rates may be the force behind the change in sales persistence. A simulation of the assembly plants' cost function illustrates that the persistence of sales is a key determinant of output volatility. A comparison of the ways in which assembly plants scheduled production in the 1990s relative to the 1970s supports the intuition of the simulation.
主题Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w10384
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568013
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Valerie A. Ramey,Daniel J. Vine. Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry. 2004.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w10384.pdf(436KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Valerie A. Ramey]的文章
[Daniel J. Vine]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Valerie A. Ramey]的文章
[Daniel J. Vine]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Valerie A. Ramey]的文章
[Daniel J. Vine]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w10384.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。