全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w10384
来源ID	Working Paper 10384
	Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry
	Valerie A. Ramey; Daniel J. Vine
发表日期	2004-03-29
出版年	2004
语种	英语
摘要	Recent papers by Kim and Nelson (1999) and McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000) uncover a dramatic decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth beginning in 1984. Determining whether the source is good luck, good policy or better inventory management has since developed into an active area of research. This paper seeks to shed light on the source of the decline in volatility by studying the behavior of the U.S. automobile industry, where the changes in volatility have mirrored those of the aggregate data. We find that changes in the relative volatility of sales and output, which have been interpreted by some as evidence of improved inventory management, are in fact the result of changes in the process driving automobile sales. We first show that the autocorrelation of sales dropped during the 1980s, and that the behavior of interest rates may be the force behind the change in sales persistence. A simulation of the assembly plants' cost function illustrates that the persistence of sales is a key determinant of output volatility. A comparison of the ways in which assembly plants scheduled production in the 1990s relative to the 1970s supports the intuition of the simulation.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w10384
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568013
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Valerie A. Ramey,Daniel J. Vine. Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry. 2004.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w10384.pdf（436KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览