| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w10431 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 10431 |
| The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997 | |
| Michael D. Bordo; Joseph G. Haubrich | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-04-19 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes. In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w10431 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568060 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bordo,Joseph G. Haubrich. The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w10431.pdf（883KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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