| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w10600 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 10600 |
| The Impact of the Terms of Trade on Economic Development in the Periphery, 1870-1939: Volatility and Secular Change | |
| Christopher Blattman; Jason Hwang; Jeffrey G. Williamson | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-07-05 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Most countries in the periphery specialized in the export of just a handful of primary products for most of their history. Some of these commodities have been more volatile than others, and those with more volatile prices have grown slowly relative both to the industrial leaders and to other primary product exporters. This fact helps explain the growth puzzle noted by Easterly, Kremer, Pritchett and Summers more than a decade ago: that the contending fundamental determinants of growth institutions, geography and culture exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain. Using a new panel database for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change on country performance between 1870 and 1939. Volatility was much more important for accumulation and growth than was secular change. Additionally, both effects were asymmetric between Core and Periphery, findings that speak directly to the terms of trade debates that have raged since Prebisch and Singer wrote more than 50 years ago. The paper also investigates one channel of impact, and finds that foreign capital inflows declined steeply where commodity prices were volatile. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w10600 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568229 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christopher Blattman,Jason Hwang,Jeffrey G. Williamson. The Impact of the Terms of Trade on Economic Development in the Periphery, 1870-1939: Volatility and Secular Change. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w10600.pdf（470KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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