| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w10764 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 10764 |
| Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation | |
| Thomas Sargent; Noah Williams; Tao Zha | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-09-20 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate a model that allows temporary gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authority's approximating non-expectational Phillips curve. A dynamic programming problem implies that the monetary authority's inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. Our estimates attribute the rise and fall of post WWII inflation in the US to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority's beliefs and economic shocks. Shocks in the 1970s altered the monetary authority's estimates and made it misperceive the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. That caused a sharp rise in inflation in the 1970s. Our estimates say that policymakers updated their beliefs continuously. By the 1980s, their beliefs about the Phillips curve had changed enough to account for Volcker's conquest of US inflation in the early 1980s. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w10764 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568396 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas Sargent,Noah Williams,Tao Zha. Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w10764.pdf（917KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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