| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w10797 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 10797 |
| The Performance of the Pivotal-Voter Model in Small-Scale Elections: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda | |
| Stephen Coate; Michael Conlin; Andrea Moro | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-09-27 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | How well does the pivotal-voter model explain voter participation in small-scale elections? This paper explores this question using data from Texas liquor referenda. It first structurally estimates the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the Texas data. It then uses the estimates to evaluate both the within and out-of-sample performance of the model. The analysis shows that the model is capable of predicting turnout in the data fairly well, but tends, on average, to predict closer electoral outcomes than are observed in the data. This difficulty allows the pivotal-voter model to be outperformed by a simple alternative model based on the idea of expressive voting. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w10797 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568429 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stephen Coate,Michael Conlin,Andrea Moro. The Performance of the Pivotal-Voter Model in Small-Scale Elections: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w10797.pdf（340KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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