| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w10855
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 10855
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| Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s |
| Robert Barsky; Lutz Kilian
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| 发表日期 | 2004-10-25
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| 出版年 | 2004
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive inflation, reduced productivity and lower economic growth. In this paper, we review the arguments supporting such views. First, we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, and we trace how the arguments of proponents of the oil view have evolved in response to these difficulties. Second, we challenge the notion that at least the major oil price movements can be viewed as exogenous with respect to the US macroeconomy. We examine critically the evidence that has led many economists to ascribe a central role to exogenous political events in modeling the oil market, and we provide arguments in favor of 'reverse causality' from macroeconomic variables to oil prices. Third, although none of the more recent oil price shocks has been associated with stagflation in the US economy, a major reason for the continued popularity of the oil shock hypothesis has been the perception that only oil price shocks are able to explain the US stagflation of the 1970s. We show that this is not the case. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w10855
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568488
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Robert Barsky,Lutz Kilian. Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s. 2004.
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文件名：
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w10855.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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