| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w10916 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 10916 |
| Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics | |
| William A. Brock; Steven N. Durlauf; Kenneth D. West | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-11-22 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of economic studies. Second, we illustrate these general ideas in the context of assessment of simple monetary policy rules for some standard New Keynesian specifications. The specifications vary in their treatment of expectations as well as in the dynamics of output and inflation. We conclude that the Taylor rule has good robustness properties, but may reasonably be challenged in overall quality with respect to stabilization by alternative simple rules that also condition on lagged interest rates, even though these rules employ parameters that are set without accounting for model uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w10916 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568551 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | William A. Brock,Steven N. Durlauf,Kenneth D. West. Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w10916.pdf（524KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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